Modeling optimal responses and fitness consequences in a changing Arctic

Animals must balance a series of costs and benefits while trying to maximize their fitness. For example, an individual may need to choose how much energy to allocate to reproduction versus growth, or how much time to spend on vigilance versus foraging. Their decisions depend on complex interactions between environmental conditions, behavioral plasticity, reproductive biology, and energetic demands. As animals respond to novel environmental conditions caused by climate change, the optimal decisions may shift. Stochastic dynamic programming provides a flexible modeling framework with which to explore these trade‐offs, but this method has not yet been used to study possible changes in optimal trade‐offs caused by climate change. We created a stochastic dynamic programming model capturing trade‐off decisions required by an individual adult female polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as well as the fitness consequences of her decisions. We predicted optimal foraging decisions throughout her lifetime as well as the energetic thresholds below which it is optimal for her to abandon a reproductive attempt. To explore the effects of climate change, we shortened the spring feeding period by up to 3 weeks, which led to predictions of riskier foraging behavior and higher reproductive thresholds. The resulting changes in fitness may be interpreted as a best‐case scenario, where bears adapt instantaneously and optimally to new environmental conditions. If the spring feeding period was reduced by 1 week, her expected fitness declined by 15%, and if reduced by 3 weeks, expected fitness declined by 68%. This demonstrates an effective way to explore a species' optimal response to a changing landscape of costs and benefits and highlights the fact that small annual effects can result in large cumulative changes in expected lifetime fitness.     

Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability

Climate change is causing range shifts in many marine species, with implications for biodiversity and fisheries. Previous research has mainly focused on how species' ranges will respond to changing ocean temperatures, without accounting for other environmental covariates that could affect future distribution patterns. Here, we integrate habitat suitability modeling approaches, a high‐resolution global climate model projection, and detailed fishery‐independent and ‐dependent faunal datasets from one of the most extensively monitored marine ecosystems—the U.S. Northeast Shelf. We project the responses of 125 species in this region to climate‐driven changes in multiple oceanographic factors (e.g., ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height) and seabed characteristics (i.e., rugosity and depth). Comparing model outputs based on ocean temperature and seabed characteristics to those that also incorporated salinity and sea surface height (proxies for primary productivity and ocean circulation features), we explored how an emphasis on ocean temperature in projecting species' range shifts can impact assessments of species' climate vulnerability. We found that multifactor habitat suitability models performed better in explaining and predicting species historical distribution patterns than temperature‐based models. We also found that multifactor models provided more concerning assessments of species' future distribution patterns than temperature‐based models, projecting that species' ranges will largely shift northward and become more contracted and fragmented over time. Our results suggest that using ocean temperature as a primary determinant of range shifts can significantly alter projections, masking species' climate vulnerability, and potentially forestalling proactive management.     

Protection from illegal fishing and shark recovery restructures mesopredatory fish communities on a coral reef

The recovery of communities of predatory fishes within a no‐take marine reserve after the eradication of illegal fishing provides an opportunity to examine the role of sharks and other large‐bodied mesopredatory fishes in structuring reef fish communities. We used baited remote underwater video stations to investigate whether an increase in sharks was associated with a change in structure of the mesopredatory fish community at Ashmore Reef, Western Australia. We found an almost fourfold increase in shark abundance in reef habitat from 0.64 hr^?1 ± 0.15 SE in 2004, when Ashmore Reef was being fished illegally, to 2.45 hr^?1 ± 0.37 in 2016, after eight years of full‐time enforcement of the reserve. Shark recovery in reef habitat was accompanied by a two and a half‐fold decline in the abundance of small mesopredatory fishes (≤50 cm TL) (14.00 hr^?1 ± 3.79 to 5.6 hr^?1 ± 1.20) and a concomitant increase in large mesopredatory fishes (≥100 cm TL) from 1.82 hr^?1 ± 0.48 to 4.27 hr^?1 ± 0.93. In contrast, near‐reef habitats showed an increase in abundance of large mesopredatory fishes between years (2.00 hr^?1 ± 0.65 to 4.56 hr^?1 ± 1.11), although only smaller increases in sharks (0.67 hr^?1 ± 0.25 to 1.22 hr^?1 ± 0.34) and smaller mesopredatory fishes. Although the abundance of most mesopredatory groups increased with recovery from fishing, we suggest that the large decline of small mesopredatory fish in reef habitat was mostly due to higher predation pressure following the increase in sharks and large mesopredatory fishes. At the regional scale, the structure of fished communities at Ashmore Reef in 2004 resembled those of present day Scott Reefs, where fishing still continues today. In 2016, Ashmore fish communities resembled those of the Rowley Shoals, which have been protected from fishing for decades.     

Adaptable mesocosm facility to study oil spill impacts on corals

Although numerous studies have been carried out on the impacts of oil spills on coral physiology, most have relied on laboratory assays. This scarcity is partly explained by the difficulty of reproducing realistic conditions in a laboratory setting or of performing experiments with toxic compounds in the field. Mesocosm systems provide the opportunity to carry out such studies with safe handling of contaminants while reproducing natural conditions required by living organisms. The mesocosm design is crucial and can lead to the development of innovative technologies to mitigate environmental impacts. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a mesocosm system for studies simulating oil spills with several key advantages, including true replication and the use of gravity to control flow‐through that reduces reliance on pumps that can clog thereby decreasing errors and costs. This adaptable system can be configured to (a) have continuous flow‐through; (b) operate as an open or closed system; (c) be fed by gravity; (d) have separate mesocosm sections that can be used for individual and simultaneous experiments; and (e) simulate the migration of oil from ocean oil spills to the nearby reefs. The mesocosm performance was assessed with two experiments using the hydrocoral Millepora alcicornis and different configurations to simulate two magnitudes of oil spills. With few exceptions, physical and chemical parameters remained stable within replicates and within treatments throughout the experiments. Physical and chemical parameters that expressed change during the experiment were still within the range of natural conditions observed in Brazilian marine environments. The photosynthetic potential (F_v/F_m) of the algae associated with M. alcicornis decreased in response to an 1% crude‐oil contamination, suggesting a successful delivery of the toxic contaminant to the targeted replicates. This mesocosm is customizable and adjustable for several types of experiments and proved to be effective for studies of oil spills.     

应用定量微生物风险评估海水浴场人体健康风险

【背景】定量微生物风险评估作为定量评估游泳人群暴露于病原微生物后健康风险的方法,在国外已得到广泛应用,但目前国内的应用处于起步阶段且缺乏所需的游泳人群暴露数据。【目的】收集游泳人群暴露数据,并在海水浴场中进行应用,评估粪大肠菌群作为风险评估指标的可行性。【方法】通过对6个典型海水浴场的水质状况、粪大肠菌群浓度与环境因子的相关性进行分析,并发放调查问卷收集国内游泳人群的暴露数据,进而应用定量微生物风险评估方法,得出各个海水浴场的胃肠道疾病患病风险。【结果】6个海水浴场中粪大肠菌群浓度均与水温、气温及总云量具有显著相关性(P<0.01)。位于南方的海水浴场粪便污染情况较北方严重,粪大肠菌群浓度第95百分位数远高于国内“差”类水质标准的阈值。儿童、成年男性、成年女性单次沐浴事件吞下海水的体积分别为35.1 mL (95%置信区间为32.4-37.8,α=0.578,β=0.016),45.0 mL (95%置信区间为31.1-59.3,α=0.532,β=0.012),35.7 mL (95%置信区间为29.7-41.8,α=0.753,β=0.032)。6个海水浴场患胃肠道疾病的风险...     

Ready on arrival: Standing variation at a chromosomal inversion contributes to rapid adaptation in an invasive marine crab

In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Tepolt et al. (2021) illustrate how the genetic architecture of adaptation and life history influence invasive success. A marvel of many invasive species is that they are incredibly successful despite evolutionary expectations that they will have low adaptive potential and suffer inbreeding depression due to initially small founding population sizes. Determining the combinations of ecoevolutionary factors that permit this apparent “genetic paradox of invasions” is an ongoing endeavour of invasive species research. Tepolt et al. (2021) study the European green crab in its invasive range on the North American west coast. Following a single introduction into California, this crab quickly spread across a wide latitude gradient, despite low diversity in the original founding population. Adaptation of this crab to clinal variation in temperature appeared largely driven by an inferred chromosomal inversion. This inversion exists as a balanced polymorphism in the European home range of green crabs and is associated with thermal tolerance. Tepolt et al. (2021) therefore demonstrate that adaptive evolution post introduction need not be impeded by bottlenecks if variation at key parts of the genome is available and can be maintained in introduced populations. Moreover, Tepolt et al. (2021) show how chromosomal inversions acting as large-effect loci might facilitate rapid responses to selection in introduced populations.